Picks, preview: Digging in to a competitive Week 1 slate
Week 1 spreads out four games across Friday and Saturday in the Mitten, starting with EMU and MSU playing weeknight games.
Week 1, finally, is here. Actually, it arrived last night, and maybe Rutgers just didn’t get looped in.
After holding off on making a pick for last week, with just one game to pick, Mitten Football is back with picks and previews, which will be a regular installment Friday each week.
Let’s dig in.
Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State, 6:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN+
Eastern Michigan is a slight home favorite over the 0-1 Spartans, but that loss also came on the road vs. USC in a game where SJSU put up 23 points in the fourth quarter to make it a close game. This will be a stiffer test for EMU than what Sacramento State put up in the opener. EMU head coach Chris Creighton complimented the visitors for how well they block and tackle, especially in space, a vestige of head coach Ken Niumatalolo’s background at Navy and coaching option football. Now that’s paired in with a more West Coast style, spread out passing game. This is a real test for Eastern Michigan’s re-shaped defense in trying to contain quarterback Luke Weaver as he and the Spartans want to get the ball down the field and into playmakers hands consistently.
On offense, Eastern Michigan will look for more of the same out of Noah Kim after he looked good, going 27-of-38 for 279 yards and three total touchdowns in the opener. The real promising note out of Kim’s opening performance is how in command and control he looked, consistently a step ahead of the defense, his pulse staying steady. If they offensive line can hold up in pass pro again and make some strides run blocking, EMU has a real recipe to make hay on offense. San Jose State, fresh off of getting torched by USC, would like to plug things up, but whether or not that group can affect Kim or EMU’s passing game is questionable. This will be a close one at Rynearson Stadium, but the Eagles pull it out in the end in a fairly high-scoring contest.
Eastern Michigan 33, San Jose State 29
Michigan State vs. Toledo, 8 p.m. Friday, FS1
This is being tabbed as a trendy G6-P4 upset pick in Week 1, and understandably so. MSU is a massive unknown, Toledo has a pretty talented roster, and the variance of transfer heavy rosters and it being both teams respective debut make for a lot of possible outcomes. But Toledo is also breaking in a new head coach, who comes from FCS Mercer and brings a few good players from that squad with him. But whatever reasonable optimism exists for the Mike Jacobs tenure in the Glass City also exists for Pat Fitzgerald and Co. And while Fitzgerald couldn’t portal-a-roster from a lower level program, this overhauled MSU roster seems to have some nice top-end talent in Cam Edwards, Kenny Soares and a few others. Depth is another question, but that gets tested down the line.
Toledo should have decent quarterback play out of John Alan Richter, a fifth-year senior who has stuck around there, but MSU is also bullish on Alessio Milivojevic. Toledo has some nice defensive talent, but so does MSU. This is really an “anything you can do I can do better” vibe, and MSU might not have the depth or top-end talent to contend for a Big Ten title, but a clean game and a few playmakers stepping up should mean MSU can get to a relatively simple win to open the Fitzgerald era. Really, MSU probably wants to get physical and run the ball and I think that will be successful on Friday night.
Michigan State 27, Toledo 16
Andrew Graham
Andrew Graham
Michigan vs. Western Michigan, 7:30 p.m., NBC
This is a more intriguing matchup than the betting line indicates, even if it is still likely to be a multi-score margin; remember, Michigan has never lost to a directional Michigan program. Saturday doesn’t seem likely to be any different, but this Western Michigan team has plenty of goods to make the game competitive, at least, most of the way. WMU returns three offensive line starters, the MAC offensive player of the year at QB and an All-MAC caliber tailback in Jalen Buckley, plus two top receivers from 2025. The defense brings back four starters in the secondary. This Western Michigan team can make Michigan work for it, and perhaps make the Wolverines really sweat if the re-made front seven can disrupt Bryce Underwood and create turnovers or negative plays.
And while WMU will be able to get some offense cooking against a Michigan defense that has questions of its own in the front seven, particularly at linebacker, Michigan’s ability to run the football behind a good offensive line and with a killer running back tandem — plus Underwood’s rushing ability, which is going to be tapped into in a more pronounced fashion — might be the decider. This Michigan team could end up leading the Power 4 in rushing, and while Western Michigan can definitely gum up the works and, if things pan out, really make a game of things, at the end of the day the talent wins out for Michigan.
Michigan 31, Western Michigan 14
Central Michigan at New Mexico, 10 p.m., FS1
A late kickoff will pit the Chippewas and Lobos against each other in a battle of second year coaches looking to build on Year 1 bowls — Matt Drinkall at CMU and Jason Eck at UNM. They happen to be Iowa and Wisconsin football alums, respectively. And that might inform how this game looks. Both teams have hold and experienced offensive lines. Both teams want to be physical and dominate you at the line of scrimmage. Both teams are also likely to be playing multiple quarterbacks, Central Michigan featuring Angel Flores and Jadyn Glasser, while New Mexico will look to one of three quarterbacks to fill in for the injured Jack Layne: James Laubstein, Luke Moga and Toa Fa’avae. Between the two teams, five quarterbacks might see the field.
There’s a big difference in why, though, as New Mexico is trying to figure out, apparently, what to do sans Layne and CMU is more or less playing Flores and Glasser and co-equals, with Flores the named starter. And if CMU gets really good quarterback play while New Mexico struggles under center, that’s more than enough to swing this game in Central Michigan’s favor. But that’s hard to bank on, that none of the three UNM QBs find any success. It also seems likely that this New Mexico team is a bit better rushing the ball after struggling there last year. This one will be closer than the 10-ish point spread, but Central Michigan can’t spring a Week 1 surprise like it did last year.
New Mexico 28, Central Michigan 23
