Week 7 picks, preview: Michigan, MSU take on Los Angeles schools

It's time for another round of picks, with four games on the slate this weekend as Central Michigan is idle.

But there are some key games, capped with a Michigan-USC showdown in the Coliseum in primetime. Picks went 2-3 last week and are 18-7 on the season.

All picks are straight up win-loss.

Michigan State vs. UCLA, noon, BTN/FOX streaming

UCLA has been the talk of college football after springing the upset of the season on Penn State last weekend. But that was last weekend, and MSU will be full alert with the feisty Bruins and quarterback Nico Iamaleava — a high school rival of Aidan Chiles — coming to Spartan Stadium. But all things being equal, Michigan State should have the edge in this one.

The Spartans have a solid rush defense, which should hopefully contain Iamaleava and the UCLA ground attack that gashed Penn State. And in the passing offense, it comes down largely to limiting Kwazi Gilmer. And Penn State still scored 37 on the Bruins, so if Aidan Chiles and Co. can get going after a shambolic performance in Lincoln, Michigan State has the goods to get this done. It might not be pretty, but the Spartans get conference win No. 1 on Saturday.

The pick: Michigan State 26, UCLA 19

Eastern Michigan vs. Northern Illinois, 1 p.m., ESPN+ streaming

The Eagles lost a heartbreaker in Buffalo last weekend, giving up a field goal lead in the final minutes before losing in overtime. But things have been trending in a good direction, and Eastern Michigan hasn’t given up the belief that they’re close to turning a corner. Saturday will be last stand time, as the 1-5 Eagles don’t have much more margin for error to still make a bowl game and meet some goals for the season. 

But the Eagles seem to have found a formula with the defense playing better, and Noah Kim and Dontae McMillan driving the offense forward. Kim has been one of the most productive passers in the MAC and McMillan one of the top rushers. Leaning on those two against another one-win team, Eastern Michigan gets the victory.

The pick: Eastern Michigan 27, Northern Illinois 21

Western Michigan vs. Ball State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+ streaming

The Broncos are winners of three in a row and can get above .500 and move to 3-0 in the MAC with a win. And Lance Taylor’s squad seems to have a formula to do that against a Ball State team that’s looking like a mid-table MAC squad. Western Michigan, along with Buffalo, is one of two teams in the MAC yet to lose a conference game.

And the recipe for Western Michigan has come into focus: Havoc-creating defense that can sack opposing quarterbacks as well as any team, and a grinding, ball controlling offense that runs the rock. Quarterback Broc Lowry has been steady as they come for Western since taking over the starting role, and will lead the Broncos to a fourth-straight win. 

The pick: Western Michigan 29, Ball State 20

Michigan at USC, 7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock

Along with being a key measuring stick for both of these teams, this also feels like a critical College Football Playoff bubble game. Neither the Trojans nor Wolverines are likely to win the Big Ten given how Oregon and Ohio State look, and taking a second loss with half the season still to play would leave little margin for error. And the winner will have notched a solid victory and be 5-1. 

And whether it’s Michigan or USC getting the win largely hinges on the lines of scrimmage. If Michigan can get to Jayden Maiava and disrupt USC’s offense while making hay running the ball on offense, the Wolverines can probably grind out a big road win. If not, the Trojans have the firepower to win a shootout. So far, though, Lincoln Riley’s team have wilted against the best the Big Ten has to offer on the lines.

The pick: Michigan 24, USC 21