Week 6 picks, preview: Road tests for MSU, Michigan MAC teams as Michigan stays home

Back to a full slate of games this weekend, as four of the five teams in the Mitten go on the road. Michigan hosting Wisconsin is the lone home game of the slate this weekend.

The trio of MAC teams are all on the road for conference games and Michigan State heads to Nebraska for a matchup as both teams come off idle weeks.

Picks went 2-0 last week and are 16-4 on the season.

Michigan vs. Wisconsin, Noon, FOX/FOX streaming

Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin teams have not lived up to the vision many had for the program when he took the job in Madison after his elite two-year run at Cincinnati. Stung by bad quarterback health luck, the Badgers have never quite gotten going offensively, which might also have to do with lackluster line play, as well. But there’s one thing Wisconsin does as well as any team in the country right now, and that’s defend the run. 

That could be a problem for a Michigan team that has been expectedly run-centric on offense, as Justice Haynes has spearheaded the backfield with assistance from Jordan Marshall and Bryce Underwood. Michigan’s defense likely keeps the Wolverines ahead in this game, should the offense get things rolling. And given Wisconsin’s run defense, Saturday could prove to be a statement for the Michigan offense, either that it has the sort of bullying and bruising run game that can beat anyone, or that Underwood and the passing game continue to evolve. 

The pick: Michigan 27, Wisconsin 10

Western Michigan at UMass, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+ streaming

Western Michigan has come into its own in the second half of September, finding its quarterback and navigating an injury at center to knock off Toledo and then roll over FCS Rhode Island to get to 2-3. It could be 3-2 if not for home overtime loss against a still-undefeated North Texas team, but either way Western Michigan can get to .500 after an 0-3 start, which would be no small feat. 

And against this UMass team, the Broncos should be able to get there. The Minutemen are one of the worst teams in the country, and the Broncos have an identity built around defense and running the ball that should travel just fine. Broc Lowry continues to grow as a passer, and the Broncos offensive line has shown it’s one of the better units in the conference, and the defense has emerged as a nasty, disruptive group that can slam the door on opposing offenses. The Broncos should win this one fairly comfortably if they play to their standard.

The pick: Western Michigan 31, UMass 13

Eastern Michigan at Buffalo, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+ streaming

It’s heading toward last stand territory for the Eagles, as the margin for error on the season has slipped away in a 1-4 start. But whether these Eagles embody Davy Crockett or Alvin York remains to be seen, and Saturday’s result in Western New York will play a big part in deciding that. And as much as the Eagles have struggled this season, the recipe to beat the Bulls is there.

The Eagles offense has been solid, the special teams good, and the defense just needs to avoid another bad start to give Eastern Michigan a game script it can win with. Buffalo isn’t exactly overpowering, but has a solid defense led by Red Murdock and the offense seems to have some juice. The Eagles are backed up against the wall, and at least for this week, that leads to some inspired, winning football.

The pick: Eastern Michigan 30, Buffalo 28

Central Michigan at Akron, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+ streaming

Matt Drinkall spoke of Akron head coach Joe Moorhead in reverent tones when discussing how the head man can scheme up an offense. And while it’s certainly true that Moorhead has been at the leading edge of offensive evolution in football, it’s hard to overcome recent history, that being that Akron isn’t very good. And while this team should pose some challenges for the Chippewas, it seems to be the case again that the Zips should be a win for most MAC foes.

That’s not to say Central Michigan can sleepwalk on Saturday, but assuming the Chippewas offense keeps hammering the ground game in concert with incisive downfield passing and the defense continues to slow and turn over opponents, Drinkall and his team should get to four wins on the season, and be on course for perhaps many more.

The pick: Central Michigan 28, Akron 15

Michigan State at Nebraska, 4 p.m., FS1/FOX streaming

This is a heck of a swing game, with two 3-1 teams coming off byes and trying to move up the ladder in the Big Ten. Conventional wisdom says that the Cornhuskers passing game, led by Dylan Raiola, should be able to pick on MSU’s porous passing defense. And conversely, Nebraska’s meager run defense should provide opportunities for Michigan State to move the ball on the ground with the backs and Aidan Chiles. 

Interestingly enough, this game might come down to some fine margins on special teams, and in that regard the edge probably goes to MSU, which can control field position as well as any team in the country with punter Ryan Eckley. True freshman kicker Martin Connington is quickly growing into a great kicking option, too. This game is likely to be close, with both teams finding ways to exploit some holes in the other’s defense. But the Michigan State team that pushed USC in the third quarter two weekends ago looked like a team on the cusp of breaking through on the road, and this weekend might be it.

The pick: Michigan State 33, Nebraska 31