Week 4 picks, preview: Michigan State, Michigan face early Big Ten road tests

Week 4 has arrived, and it's time for a fresh round of picks.

A full five-game slate this week, with all three directional schools playing host and the Big Ten behemoths playing key early conference road games with Michigan at Nebraska and Michigan State at USC to cap off the night.

Picks went 4-0 last week and are 10-3 on the season.

Central Michigan vs. Wagner, 1 p.m., ESPN+ streaming

A get-right game before conference play is just what the Chippewas need after a bludgeoning at the hands of Michigan. And Wagner should oblige, as the 0-3 FCS outfit rolls into Mt. Pleasant. The Chippewas can’t sleep walk (as EMU learned earlier this year) but a solid performance from the defense and bounce back from the offense should guide Central Michigan to win No. 2 on the year.

The defense has been strong at creating takeaways with five through three games and should be able to get after the Wagner offensive line some. And on offense, the running game will look to find a groove and this could be an opportunity for the Chippewas to open up the passing game for the first time. But that might not even be necessary if the run game gets rolling.

The pick: Central Michigan 31, Wagner 7

Eastern Michigan vs. Louisiana, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+ streaming

Louisiana wants to run, and run, and run some more. That’s in part by design of the offense and, after a Week 1 injury, the loss of quarterback Walker Howard. His replacements, Daniel Beale and Lunch Winfield, haven’t offered a ton down the field for the Ragin’ Cajuns. So this becomes a key test for an Eastern Michigan defense that feels like it found something in a loss to Kentucky.

And if the Eagles defense can finally come through, the offense have been producing enough to win some games with a bit of help. Assuming that Noah Kim and Co. hold up their end of the bargain, this could be an afternoon for the Eagles to sell out on the run, make enough hay on offense, and get win No. 1 this season. 

The pick: Eastern Michigan 21, Louisiana 20

Western Michigan vs. Toledo, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+ streaming

The Broncos are 0-3 but the losses are as follows: at Michigan State, vs. North Texas, at Top 10 Illinois. Two of those games were almost sure losses against Big Ten teams, and the Broncos defense looked good in stretches on those days. And Western Michigan basically had North Texas — which beat the brakes off Washington State in Week 3 — beaten at Waldo Stadium in Week 2. Winless is winless, but the Broncos have lost to a trio of good teams, and arguably should’ve beaten one.

So with another good team, Toledo, coming to Waldo Stadium, the Broncos should have more than enough to give themselves a chance. They just likely need the passing game to come through in a real way at some point. And while the Broncos have confidence in the quarterbacks, the Toledo defense is one of the best in the country so far and the offense hasn’t been bad, either. The Broncos keep it close but fall to 0-4. 

The pick: Toledo 34, Western Michigan 24

Michigan at Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., CBS/Paramount+

Michigan enters as a slim favorite but this game truly feels like a toss up, with a number of factors shaping the outcome. Does Michigan handle a road environment crisply after trial-by-Sooners? Does Bryce Underwood punish the Cornhuskers defense with his legs? Can the Michigan defense make Dylan Raiola uncomfortable? If the answer to those is yes, across the board, the Wolverine should win.

But with some injury murkiness and the distinct possibility that the answer to one or more of those questions is no, this isn’t a layup. Michigan will need to slow down a Nebraska team that’s been good through the air and on the ground. But the offense might have a pathway, as the Cornhuskers run defense is pedestrian. With some slim advantages on the line of scrimmage, Michigan wins and Nebraska goes 0-28 against ranked opponents dating back to 2016. 

The pick: Michigan 24, Nebraska 20

Michigan State at USC, 11 p.m., FOX/FOX streaming

Throw out the decaf for this one, both for the late kickoff and the fact you’ll need a few hundred milligrams of caffeine in your system to keep up with the USC offense. The Trojans have gone full Hank Scorpio with a flamethrower against a weak slate to start the season, and the passing offense led by quarterback Jayden Maiava is producing a weekly supernova of production. And what really has Lincoln Riley’s offense humming again is the re-emergence of a good run game. 

And for the Spartans, it could spell trouble. Michigan State has been good against the run this year, but has been sliced and diced through the air. A bad showing on the backend against Boston College was not put to bed with a shutdown performance against FCS Youngstown State. And while the Spartans defenders are excited for the challenge. And for all that’s been made of the travel and late kickoff, the real problem for Michigan State in this one will be slowing the Trojans scorched-earth offense.

The pick: USC 49, Michigan State 34