Week 3 picks, preview: CMU visits Michigan Stadium; EMU, WMU major road dogs

Week 3 has arrived, with four games on the docket. 

The two Big Ten teams, Michigan and Michigan State, play at home, with Michigan hosting Central Michigan for a noon kick on Big Ten Network. Michigan State hosts Youngstown State at 3:30 p.m.

And the two remaining directional schools both go on the road for fairly daunting matchups: Eastern Michigan faces Kentucky at 7:30 p.m. and Western Michigan plays Top 10 Illinois at 7 p.m.

Picks went 3-2 last week, missing on EMU and WMU, and are 6-3 on the season. 

Central Michigan at Michigan, noon, Big Ten Network/BTN+/Fox streaming

Michigan should win this game, but a four-touchdown spread is too much for two teams that are happy to control the ball and play stingy defense. Michigan surely wants to open things up a bit offensively after a clunker against Oklahoma, but the Chippewas defense has been feisty, forcing four turnovers in two games. The group did get blitzed in the second half by the Pitt offense, but with veterans across the unit the Chippewas should be able to keep the Michigan offense from exploding for 40-plus points if they limit explosives. The Wolverines offensive line has also been suspect through two weeks. 

And vice versa, the Central Michigan three-quarterback pro-style power spread offense will create plenty of headaches for the Wolverines. It’s not quite service academy levels of discipline required mentally for the defense, but it’ll be close in accounting for a rotating cast of three quarterbacks — Joe Labas, Jadyn Glasser and Angel Flores — who can all run the offense for Central Michigan but all have their own strengths, too. This game will be closer than the spread would indicate, but Michigan wins out in the end on the depth and talent gap, especially in the trenches on defense. 

The pick: Michigan 30, Central Michigan 16

Youngstown State at Michigan State, 3:30 p.m., Big Ten Network/BTN+/Fox streaming

Youngstown State’s own head coach said this week that the purpose of this game for his program is to earn a check. The Penguins are a competitive team in FCS, but are still a far cry from a roster that can compete with the Spartans. Even still, head coach Jonathan Smith has his team on alert to slow down a dynamic quarterback in Youngstown State’s Beau Brungard, a dual threat with seven total touchdowns. 

But the simple matter is this game is a chance for Michigan State to clean up the list of things left over from the Boston College win and getting polished up for a big Week 4 road test at USC to open Big Ten play. The Spartans surely want to see the offensive line play a clean, dominant game against lesser competition and the defense not getting sliced and diced aerially would be a good step to have some good vibes before facing a daunting Trojans offense. So long as the Spartans don’t get in their own way or overlook this one entirely, it should be a chill, workman-like afternoon in East Lansing. 

The pick: Michigan State 45, Youngstown State 7

Western Michigan at Illinois, 7 p.m., FS1/Fox streaming

The Broncos could very easily be 1-1 entering this game, and likely start MAC play against Toledo on Sept. 20 with a 1-2 record, the losses both coming to Big Ten teams. Instead, the Broncos slipped up and lost in overtime to North Texas on Sept. 6, and will likely be 0-3 barring a major upset over Top 10-ranked Illinois. And it’ll be an uphill climb to do that.

Western Michigan wants to be a physical, point of attack team that runs the ball on offense. So does Illinois. Both teams want to do the same on defense. And the Illini have a deep, experienced roster with veteran P4 talent. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has won a lot of college football games, and the defense is nasty. Western Michigan puts up a fight and can live in the sort of game Illinois wants to play, but not for 60 minutes. 

The pick: Illinois 31, Western Michigan 9

Eastern Michigan at Kentucky, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU/ESPN streaming

Fresh off a loss to FCS Long Island, Eastern Michigan gets a treat of a trip, facing an SEC team on the road. And while the Eagles are big underdogs in this game, there are no shortage of potential silver linings and takeaways. Playing against a Kentucky team that’s strong at the lines of scrimmage, generally, can the Eastern offensive line hold up and protect Noah Kim and establish the run game? Does the offense keep playing clean and maybe more efficiently? 

But the biggest thing that needs to happen for Eastern is a big step on the defense, particularly stopping the run. In two weeks, Eastern Michigan has surrendered more than 600 rushing yards. That’s no way to play winning football. And while the Eagles aren’t likely to go from upset victims to pulling one themselves, taking a stride and playing with more soundness on defense while the offense keeps growing would be a meaningful outcome for Eastern Michigan. 

The pick: Kentucky 31, Eastern Michigan 10