Week 12 picks, preview: MSU bowl hopes on life support, UM at Wrigley Field, MAC title contenders play midweek
The five Mitten teams are all in action in the coming days, with three games this Saturday and two MACtion games to follow.
Picks took a bit of a lull last week, and just got lumped into the Masterkey, but with a full slate of five games in the coming days — including some #MACtion — it’s back to a full-fledged column.
Picks went 2-1 last week and are 30-13 on the season. Let’s dig in.
Games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Michigan at Northwestern, noon, FOX/FOX streaming
To lean into a baseball analogy as the Wolverines play the Wildcats at Wrigley Field this weekend, UM is fortunate to feature Jordan Marshall in relief for Justice Haynes. There are few, if any, running back tandems in the country that are better when both are healthy. However, at the moment, Haynes isn’t healthy, and the duties have fallen to Marshall to be the engine of Michigan’s offense — especially as Bryce Underwood has regressed as a passer in recent weeks.
And while Northwestern is a feisty team under David Braun, the Wolverines should have the goods to win at the line of scrimmage and let Marshall set the tone. There’s little reason to believe this will be the week the Wolverines finally don’t have a 100-yard rusher this year. And Northwestern is a team that’s fairly capable running and defending the pass, but has trouble passing and defending the run. This stacks up for Michigan to be able to control the game and win and, in an ideal world, get Underwood back on track.
The pick: Michigan 31, Northwestern 17
Eastern Michigan at Ball State, noon, ESPN+ streaming
The Eagles played one of the better games of their season last Saturday, besting Bowling Green and knocking the Falcons from a shot at bowl eligibility. The Eagles can continue playing spoiler this weekend and eliminate Ball State from the MAC title race. But for EMU, the reasons to play have been internal, not external, as they’ve tapped into their “why” of late. It evidently helped, as a bye week also likely did, in the win against Bowling Green.
And if the defense can play at the level it did against the Falcons while the offense keeps up being the productive unit it’s been all season, the Eagles can very much win this game. There’s a reason that EMU is favored, even slightly, on the road. And with Noah Kim spreading the ball around to various receivers and Dontae McMillan looking explosive again, the Eagles can go on the road and win two games in a row for the first time since the end of September 2024.
The pick: Eastern Michigan 27, Ball State 23
Michigan State vs. Penn State, 3:30 p.m., CBS/Paramount plus streaming
The stakes of this game are not what either team expected or hoped for prior to the season, but the stakes of this game are still quite real: Staying alive for a bowl bid and winning a rivalry game. The Land Grant Trophy itself might not be sleek, but pride is on the line between these two programs for more than just the rivalry, too, as the Nittany Lions and MSU are both 3-6 and winless at 0-6 in Big Ten play. And neither wants to be the team getting knocked from bowl eligibility in a rivalry loss.
While Penn State’s roster is unquestionably more talented, it’s also playing with a green quarterback in Ethan Grunkemeyer, who is replacing the injured Drew Allar. It looks like the Nittany Lions did find something against Indiana this past weekend, nearly winning, and can lean on defense and the run game with a stable of talented backs to outlast the Spartans. And the ultimate issue for MSU: The Spartan offensive line needs to hold up against a fearsome front seven. That’s not a good recipe.
The pick: Penn State 21, Michigan State 14
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois, 7 p.m. Tuesday, ESPN2/ESPN streaming
Western Michigan is in the driver’s seat in the MAC, and just needs to win out in the final two games to make the MAC title game, starting with Tuesday night in Dekalb, Illinois. The Huskies just thrashed lowly UMass, but a bad MAC team getting to beat up on maybe the worst FBS team this season doesn’t portend much by way of how this Tuesday will go. The Huskies have struggled on offense all season, and the UMass win was the first game all season that NIU scored more than 21.
Well, Western Michigan has arguably the best defense in the MAC (Toledo has a claim to stake) and an offense that can help them control games on the ground. The fact of the matter is Western Michigan outmatches NIU in most aspects, and the Broncos just need to keep the focus on what’s right in front of them. Based on how they spoke after beating Ohio, that shouldn’t be a worry for the Broncos.
The pick: Western Michigan 35, NIU 10
Central Michigan at Kent State, 7 p.m. Wednesday, ESPNU/ESPN streaming
Like their rivals in Kalamazoo, the Chippewas are in the mix for the MAC title but need some help, along with winning out. Kent State is coming off a stirring rivalry win against an Akron team that beat Central Michigan, so this is by no means a gimme against a team further down the MAC standings. Quarterback Dru Deshields has been electric of late for Kent State.
But the Chippewas are also playing some of their best ball of the season and could be getting healthier with Angel Flores returning to the lineup after a few weeks out with an injury. Either way, the way the defense has been playing should give the Chippewas the upper hand, and let the offense control the game.
The pick: Central Michigan 28, Kent State 20
