Week 1 picks, preview: Will a directional pull off an upset?

Straight-up picks for all five Mitten teams in the four games they will play this weekend. 

Michigan State vs. Western Michigan, Friday, 7:00 p.m.

The biggest question going into this matchup Friday surrounds the Broncos quarterback situation, as head coach Lance Taylor said early in the week that both Broc Lowry and Brady Jones will play. Lowry played some for Western Michigan in 2024, mostly as a running quarterback, and Jones transferred from Riverside CC, where he had a prolific 2024 season as a passer. 

Regardless of who is under center, though, the Broncos want to be a run-centric team and have a table of backs who can tote the rock, led by Jalen Buckley, though Michigan transfer Cole Cabana will miss the opener with an injury. And there lies the first big test for the Michigan State defense in Year 2 under Joe Rossi as defensive coordinator. With increased depth on the line and a plethora of linebackers, Friday night could be a good pedestal for an improved Spartan defense to show off just how far they’ve come.

And offensively for Michigan State, plenty of attention will be on Aidan Chiles as the quarterback aims to take a step forward in his second year starting. But many of the gains for the Spartans could be made in the trenches. Plus the receiving corps has gotten rave reviews. Western Michigan is bullish on the depth and versatility of its defense and should have the horses to hang around and make this game something other than a blowout. But in the end, the talent edge shows up for the Spartans.

The pick: Michigan State 34, Western Michigan 13

Central Michigan at San Jose State, Friday, 10:30 p.m.

With so much new for the Chippewas, from head coach Matt Drinkall to the cadre of transfers any college football team has nowadays, there are some fairly reliable forces for Central Michigan to bank on into the opener. 

Quarterback Joe Labas is the starter for Friday night, retaking a job he won last year and held before getting hurt in Week 6. Drinkall has been consistent in saying he wants to play more than just Labas at quarterback, talking up the talents of the others, but in what capacity remains to be seen. And on defense, the Chippewas do bring back quite a bit of production, headlined by senior linebacker Jordan Kwiatkowski, who finished 2024 with 14 tackles for loss. 

San Jose State is replacing über-productive wideout Nick Nash, but quarterback Walker Eget should still have a solid array of targets to throw to. The Spartans finished 2024 with the nation's No. 5 passing offense in terms of yards per game, and would likely be content turning this game into a shootout. And Drinkall, a former offensive line coach at Army, would likely be content with the opposite. It just might be too much to pull off in Game 1, all the way on the West Coast.

The pick: San Jose State 31, Central Michigan 20

Michigan vs. New Mexico, Saturday, 7:30 p.m.

All eyes will, understandably, be on the No. 1 overall recruit from the 2025 signing class, Bryce Underwood. The highly-touted prospect from nearby Belleville flipped his commitment from LSU last fall, reportedly signing a hefty NIL deal in the process. After enrolling early, Underwood won out as the starter in fall camp and will lead the Wolverines against New Mexico.

The good news for the newly-minted starter and head coach Sherrone Moore is that Michigan is a heavy favorite in this game. Barring catastrophe, Saturday evening should be a chance to iron out the best combinations on the offensive line, see which defensive linemen could be ready to fill big shoes, and let Underwood get his feet wet as Michigan tunes up for a Week 2 showdown at Oklahoma with a relatively simple win over New Mexico.

And by simple, don’t be surprised if the Wolverines lean heavily on the offensive line and tailback duo of Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes. It’s how Michigan wants to play offense, anyways. 

The pick: Michigan 42, New Mexico 10

Eastern Michigan at Texas State, Saturday, 8:00 p.m.

Few schools have been as transfer-forward in roster building as G.J. Kinne’s Texas State. All told, 70 players for Texas State transferred there from another college program at some point, either this offseason or prior.

And the Eagles and Chris Creighton enter with a roster that has no shortage of new faces, either. It all boils down to a season opener where the tenor of the game is borderline impossible to predict. What Creighton does like about his team this year is depth, and feels like it’s maybe the deepest roster he’s had in 12 years coaching the Eagles. Saturday will be the debut of a new starting quarterback, likely one of Noah Kim or Jeremiah Salem. 

But this game may hinge more on the opponent and, ironically, Kinne naming redshirt freshman Brad Jackson the starting quarterback over a pair of transfers: Nate Yarnell (Pitt) and Holden Geriner (Auburn). The Eagles put up a valiant effort, but going on the road ends up a decider.

The pick: Texas State 20, Eastern Michigan 13