Notebook: Milivojevic trending toward start vs. Iowa, Michigan RB precarity, MAC title math

East Lansing — Alessio Milivojevic could be in line for his third start of his college career for Michigan State as the Spartans travel to face Iowa this Saturday.

The Spartans haven’t made a formal announcement, but Milivojevic has started the last two games and played mistake-free football and Aidan Chiles, who got benched in favor of the redshirt freshman against Minnesota, has been injured since the week of practice prior to playing Penn State. 

Chiles wore a walking boot on his left foot and leg on the sideline on Saturday, and head coach Jonathan Smith said the coaching staff will know later in the week about whether the junior quarterback will be healthy enough to play against the Hawkeyes. 

“We’re going to kind of see if he can work himself to being available by the end of the week,” Smith said. “I think there’s a potential chance. He doesn’t have something that’s deemed like he’s out for the rest of the year, so we’ll see at the end of the week on him.”

Smith hasn’t ruled out Chiles returning to the lineup or even using him in concert with Milivojevic, capitalizing on Chiles’ athleticism and rushing ability in short yardage and red zone situations. 

But with Milivojevic taking the bulk of the first-team reps the last few weeks and displaying some promising traits in his two games and Chiles’ health still a bit in flux, keeping Milivojievic as the starter seems like the likely outcome. 

One of the traits that has served Milivojevic most is his comfort and confidence to stay on his spot and deliver a throw against the rush, knowing he’s going to get hit. For a quarterback who’s been hit countless times en route to taking 12 sacks in the last two games, it’s shown up plenty. 

Speaking to the media on Tuesday, Milivojevic explained confidence in his line and receivers to get their jobs done is the root of his ability to make plays in those moments where pressure might get through. 

But the overarching theme with respect to that, one repeated by Smith, Milivojevic and offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren, is a need for the pass protection to be better. And the Spartans have been consistent in saying that’s involves all 11 players on the offense. 

“We gotta keep working, change the launch point and keep things staying on schedule to where we can give him a little bit more time, a little bit cleaner for him,” Lindgren said.

Milivojevic has shown a lot of good qualities in his two starts, from his toughness to some impressive on the move accuracy and a good feel for protecting the football, and his play, among other factors, has him in line for a third. 

Michigan backfield in precarious spot

Wolverine fans are spending much of this week hoping a 20-year-old's right shoulder feels good enough to play football this weekend (and perhaps more importantly, the following weekend.)

With Justice Haynes now likely out for the final two games of the regular season, something Sherrone Moore said on Monday, Jordan Marshall and his injured right shoulder exiting the Northwestern game are central to Michigan’s offense and its success. 

Marshall did not return in the late stages of that game. X-rays on Marshall’s shoulder came back negative, according to Moore, but Marshall’s status going forward is murky.

“I feel good about where he’s at, but we’ll see," Moore said. “We’ll take it day by day and see where he’s at.”

If Marshall cannot play on Saturday against Maryland, the Wolverines will turn to former walk-on Bryson Kuzdzal and true freshman Jasper Parker in the backfield. Those two are the only other running backs to have taken a meaningful amount of carries. 

Kuzdzal finished off the game against the Wildcats and has 25 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown on the season and Parker has 17 carries for 70 yards and a score. 

And amidst this injury attrition in the backfield, the Wolverines might need more out of Bryce Underwood, both on the ground and through the air, to beat the Terrapins and have a shot at upsetting Ohio State. 

MAC title game math fun

Forgive the nerding out, but it’s some good math and spatial thinking to consider. 

There are nine games left in MAC play that affect the title race, starting tonight: 

• Tues., Nov. 18: Western Michigan at Northern Illinois
• Tues., Nov. 18: UMass at Ohio
• Weds., Nov. 19: Central Michigan at Kent State
• Weds., Nov. 19: Miami (OH) at Buffalo
• Sat., Nov. 22: Ball State at Toledo
• Tues., Nov. 25: Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan
• Fri., Nov. 28: Ohio at Buffalo
• Sat., Nov. 29: Ball State at Miami (OH)
• Sat., Nov. 29: Toledo at Central Michigan

And using basic probabilities, that means there are still 512 distinct outcomes left for the top of the league. Each game has two distinct outcomes (Team A wins, or Team B wins), and there are nine games, so take the number of possible outcomes and raise it to the power of how many individual instances (games) are left. So, with nine games left, it’s 2⁹ to get 512 possible outcomes.

There'll be 128 possible outcomes after Tuesday’s games (2⁷), and so on and so forth. 

That does not mean, however, that all 512 of the outcomes are equally as likely. 

Firstly, teams can be qualitatively better or worse than each other so each game isn’t a 50-50 proposition. Additionally, the 512 different outcomes are about the combinations of wins and losses across the nine games, not which two teams make the title game — the actually relevant output. And the outcomes for which two teams make the title game is not distributed proportionally among the 512 outcomes, i.e. some teams have narrower paths than others. Results from outside these nine remaining relevant games are included in determining final standings, tiebreakers and the like. 

Distilled another way: Because Western Michigan has a leg up on the rest of the league with a 5-1 conference record, it has a better than 1-in-6 chance of going to Detroit, despite there being six teams with any realistic chance. 

But as of right now, there are still 512 different ways the title race can shake out. 

Bowl projections

Just doing some compiling here, pulling together from ESPN, The Athletic, CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated and Athlon Sports to see where Central Michigan, Michigan and Western Michigan might play this postseason. 

For what it’s worth, it’d be surprising if one of the Broncos or Chippewas aren’t in the GameAbove Sports Bowl in Detroit on Boxing Day, but it’s quite possible they’re both playing further afield.

As for the Wolverines, see if you can’t spot the trend.

Central Michigan

• ESPN (Kyle Bonagura): Cure Bowl vs. Arkansas State — Orlando, Dec. 17
• ESPN (Mark Schlabach): 68 Ventures Bowl vs. Coastal Carolina — Mobile, Alabama, Dec. 17
• CBS Sports: Cure Bowl vs. Marshall — Orlando, Dec. 17
• The Athletic: Salute to Veterans Bowl vs. Arkansas State — Montgomery, Alabama, Dec. 16
• SI: Salute to Veterans Bowl vs. Troy — Montgomery, Alabama, Dec. 16
• Athlon: Arizona Bowl vs. Fresno State — Tucson, Arizona, Dec. 27

Michigan

• ESPN (Bonagura): Citrus Bowl vs. Vanderbilt — Orlando, Dec. 31
• ESPN (Schlabach): Citrus Bowl vs. Vanderbilt — Orlando, Dec. 31
• CBS Sports: Citrus Bowl vs. Texas — Orlando, Dec. 31
• The Athletic: Citrus Bowl vs. Tennessee — Orlando, Dec. 31
• SI: Citrus Bowl vs. Texas — Orlando, Dec. 31
• Athlon: Citrus Bowl vs. Texas — Orlando, Dec. 31

Western Michigan

• ESPN (Bongura): Salute to Veterans Bowl vs. East Carolina — Montgomery, Alabama, Dec. 16
• ESPN (Schlabach): GameAbove Sports Bowl vs. Rutgers — Detroit, Dec. 26
• CBS Sports: Salute to Veterans Bowl vs. Troy — Montgomery, Alabama, Dec. 16
• The Athletic: GameAbove Sports Bowl vs. Minnesota — Detroit, Dec. 26
• SI: Arizona Bowl vs. Fresno State — Tucson, Arizona, Dec. 27
• Athlon: 68 Ventures Bowl vs. Arkansas State — Mobile, Alabama, Dec. 17