(Updated) MAC title race: Paths to Detroit crystallize for Western Michigan, Central Michigan

UPDATED (8:59 p.m. EST, Nov. 24, 2025)

Editor's note: updated the spreadsheet and this article to reflect to 16 scenarios released by the MAC on Monday. Had some of the tiebreaks wrong assuming multi-team tiebreaks would send multiple teams in one go, when it's not that way; for example, the MAC uses a four-team tiebreak to eliminate/clinch a team and moves to a three-team tiebreak and so on.

The MAC title race is coming down to the final week, with five teams still alive led by Western Michigan. 

The Broncos are alone at 6-1 in first place, with Central Michigan, Ohio, Miami (OH) and Toledo all tied for second place at 5-2. The Chippewas and Rockets are slated to play on Saturday in a potential win-and-in game for both teams. 

But before that game kicks off on Saturday, the Broncos travel to Ypsilanti on Tuesday, Ohio visits Buffalo on Black Friday and at the same time as the Chippewas and Rockets, Miami (OH) will host Ball State. Beyond the games with the contenders, a few results around the league will shape potential tiebreaks. 

Let’s dig in. 

The state of play

Relevant standings (conference record in parentheses):

• Western Michigan (6-1)
• Miami (OH) (5-2)
• Ohio (5-2)
• Central Michigan (5-2)
• Toledo (5-2)

Remaining key games, with dates:

• Tues., Nov. 25: Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan
• Fri., Nov. 28: Buffalo vs. Ohio
• Sat., Nov. 29: Miami (OH) vs. Ball State
• Sat., Nov. 29: Central Michigan vs. Toledo

The possible title game matchups are:

• WMU vs. Toledo — 5 ways
• WMU vs. Miami (OH) — 3 ways
• WMU vs. CMU — 2 ways
• WMU vs. Ohio — 2 ways
• Toledo vs. Miami (OH) — 2 ways
• CMU vs. Miami (OH)
• Miami (OH) vs. Ohio

And a generalized breakdown of the possible title game matchups and tiebreakers is in this spreadsheet. 

Western Michigan knocking on the door

A trip to the Motor City is within Western Michigan’s grasp, as the Broncos lock up a bid to the MAC title game with a win against Eastern Michigan on Tuesday. 

But even if the Broncos lose, a number of pathways to Ford Field still exist. 

There are four combinations of outcomes that send the Broncos to the title game even with a loss to the Eagles. 

They are: 

• EMU win, Ohio win, Ball State win, Toledo win
• EMU win, Buffalo win, Ball State win, Toledo win
• EMU win, Buffalo win, Ball State win, CMU win
• EMU win, Ohio win, Ball State win, CMU win

In fact, there are only four sets of outcomes that don’t send Western Michigan to the title game. 

They are: 

• EMU win, Buffalo win, Miami win and Toledo win
• EMU win, Ohio win, Miami win and Toledo win
• EMU win, Ohio win, Ball State win, CMU win
• EMU win, Ohio win, Miami win, CMU win

Basically, if the Broncos lose and Toledo and Miami both win, or Ohio and CMU both win, WMU will miss the title game. All the scenarios, of course, require Western Michigan to lose. 

So it can all be a moot point with a win on Tuesday night. 

Central Michigan alive and well

Central Michigan has to win to get in, unlike the Broncos, and Toledo is currently a solid favorite for a visit to Kelly/Shorts Stadium. 

All told, Central Michigan has three ways to get to Ford Field and four of them require Ball State to beat Miami (OH). 

They are: 

• WMU win, Buffalo win, Ball State win, CMU win
• EMU win, Buffalo win, Ball State win, CMU win
• EMU win, Buffalo win, Miami win, CMU win

Basically, if EMU and Buffalo win, the outcome of the Miami-Ball State game doesn’t matter.

And if both Buffalo and Ball State win, CMU gets in with a win over Toledo, no matter what happens between WMU and EMU.

How the WMU-CMU rematch happens

There are two paths for this rivalry to rematch in Detroit. 

They are: 

• WMU win, Buffalo win, Ball State win, CMU win
• EMU win, Buffalo win, Ball State win, CMU win

It’s maybe not the most likely outcome at this point considering favorites and the like, but a historic rivalry game coming up for a rematch in the MAC title game is still very much in play.