MAC title race: 32 outcomes in play, including 7 CMU-WMU Victory Cannon rematch possibilities

If you’re looking for MAC title game scenarios, look no further. Western Michigan is in the driver's seat, but there’s no shortage of combinations for how this race can shake out.

With seven conference games left to play and five that really shape the conference title race, there are, at this point, 32 distinct outcomes for the race to get to Ford Field for the conference title game on Dec. 6.

At 6-1 and alone in first place in the conference, 25 of the 32 outcomes feature Western Michigan advancing to Ford Field, benefitted by a win-and-in matchup at Eastern Michigan on Tuesday. No other team has as clean a path, though Miami (OH) is in a strong position with respect to tiebreaks. 

Mitten Football broke down the title race and compiled the possible results in this spreadsheet. 

Here’s a quick rundown of the state of play with a handful of games to play. 

Relevant standings (conference record in parentheses)

• Western Michigan (6-1)
• Miami (OH) (5-2)
• Ohio (5-2)
• Central Michigan (5-2)
• Toledo (4-2)

Toledo has two games left to play, two of the five that will shape the title race in the final weeks.

Five key games

• Sat., Nov. 22: Toledo vs. Ball State
• Tues., Nov. 25: Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan
• Fri., Nov. 28: Buffalo vs. Ohio
• Sat., Nov. 29: Miami (OH) vs. Ball State
• Sat., Nov. 29: Central Michigan vs. Toledo 

The other games in the conference are Bowling Green at UMass and Kent State at Northern Illinois. All those teams are eliminated from the conference title race (as are EMU, Buffalo, Ball State and Akron) though their results will affect the tiebreakers some. 

Let’s dig in.

Number of ways to get in

Western Michigan, unsurprisingly, has the most ways in: 25 of 32 outcomes put the Broncos in the MAC title game. 

16 of those, naturally, featured WMU winning against EMU on Tuesday and locking the bid in automatically. But there are still nine outcomes where the Broncos lose to EMU on Tuesday and secure a title bid via various tiebreakers as the other matchups get settled. 

Of the seven possible outcomes where Western Michigan doesn’t go to Ford Field (all predicated on losing to EMU) five feature Ohio beating Buffalo, but no one result has a direct tie to WMU getting in. A loss to Eastern Michigan could be particularly damaging with respect to tiebreaks as the Eagles are a common opponent for WMU, Miami (OH), CMU and Ohio.

After the Broncos, the Redhawks have 15 pathways to get in, and Central Michigan is third with 11 outcomes that send the Chippewas to Ford Field. Ohio (seven paths) and Toledo (six) have the narrowest set of outcomes to get the MAC title game. 

All but three of the possible bid situations for Central Michigan — which must defeat Toledo in the regular season finale to get in — involve Ball State beating Miami (OH) on the last day of the regular season. 

For CMU to get to Ford Field without that result coming through, here are the three possible paths. They also all involve WMU losing to EMU along with, of course, Miami (OH) beating Ball State.

• Toledo def. Ball State + EMU def. WMU + Buffalo def. Ohio + Miami (OH) def. Ball State + CMU def. Toledo
• Ball State def. Toledo + EMU def. WMU + Ohio def. Buffalo + Miami (OH) def. Ball State + CMU def. Toledo
• Ball State def. Toledo + EMU def. WMU + Buffalo + Ohio + Miami (OH) def. Ball State + CMU def. Toledo

Matchup combinations

The most likely game we get on Dec. 6 at Ford Field is No. 1 seed WMU hosting No. 2 seed Miami (OH). 

If the Broncos win, they secure the No. 1 seed and Miami (OH) is the most likely team to emerge from second place with the tiebreaks. There are eight potential results that generate that game, and two more where the seeds flip for 10 total possible matchups between the Redhawks and Broncos. Miami (OH) won that regular season contest to hand WMU it’s lone MAC loss so far. 

The next most common matchup is, yes, a Victory Cannon rematch. 

There are seven outcomes that pit Western Michigan and Central Michigan back up against each other following a 24-21 WMU win in the regular season. The two rivals have never met in the MAC title game. 

The other possible matchups (number of times possible):

• WMU-Ohio (four)
• WMU-Toledo (four)
• Miami (OH)-CMU (two)
• CMU-Ohio (two)
• Toledo-Miami (OH) (two)
• Ohio vs. Miami (OH) (one)

The 7 CMU-WMU rematch scenarios

As mentioned above, CMU needs Ball State to beat Miami (OH) on Nov. 29 to make the path as clear as possible. And six of the seven WMU-CMU matchups come with the Cardinals beating the Redhawks. 

The simplest, most available path is this: Western Michigan beats Eastern Michigan, Ball State beats Miami (OH) and Central Michigan beats Toledo. There are four possible scenarios where that happens, rendering the Toledo-Ball State and Ohio-Buffalo results moot.

If WMU loses to EMU and Buffalo beats Ohio, that also presents three windows for Central Michigan to make it to Ford Field and face the Broncos. 

So depending on what happens between the Broncos and Eagles on Tuesday night, the Chippewas’ can adjust their rooting interests accordingly. 

If WMU wins, it’s all in on Ball State vs. Miami (OH). And if EMU pulls the upset, there will be no bigger Buffalo boosters outside fo Western New York than folks in Mt. Pleasant.